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Campodarsego vs Virtus Bolzano — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Campodarsego
Campodarsego
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Virtus Bolzano
Virtus Bolzano
9/18/2022Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 3Stadio Comunale M. Montagna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Campodarsego49%
×Draw27%
Virtus Bolzano24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Campodarsego
1.44
Virtus Bolzano
0.93

Campodarsego creates 55% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 34 away

creates per match

Campodarsego
1.52
Virtus Bolzano
0.88

allows per match

Campodarsego
0.98
Virtus Bolzano
1.35

finishing

Campodarsego+0.00on par
Virtus Bolzano+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Campodarsego ↓

Virtus Bolzano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Campodarsego or draw
76%
Campodarsego or Virtus Bolzano
73%
Draw or Virtus Bolzano
51%

Winning margin

Campodarsego wins by 2+
24%
Virtus Bolzano wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Campodarsego 1+ goals
76%
Campodarsego 2+ goals
42%
Campodarsego 3+ goals
18%
Virtus Bolzano 1+ goals
61%
Virtus Bolzano 2+ goals
24%
Virtus Bolzano 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Campodarsego (draw refunded)
67%
Virtus Bolzano (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Campodarsego at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.98 · 100 matches

Virtus Bolzano away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.35 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Campodarsego attack 1.52 + Virtus Bolzano defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.44

Virtus Bolzano attack 0.88 + Campodarsego defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Campodarsego scores more
49%
level
27%
Virtus Bolzano scores more
24%

Campodarsego at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Campodarsego will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Campodarsego 1–1 Virtus Bolzano

Campodarsego and Virtus Bolzano drew 1-1 in Serie D - Girone C on September 18, 2022.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale M. Montagna in Albignasego.