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Campodarsego vs San Martino Speme — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Campodarsego
Campodarsego
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
San Martino Speme
San Martino Speme
D. Antinoro 88'
L. Moraschi 72'
D. Marini 24'
2/6/2022Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 19Centro Sportivo Il Gabbiano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Campodarsego59%
×Draw23%
San Martino Speme18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Campodarsego
1.82
San Martino Speme
0.90

Campodarsego creates 102% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 17 away

creates per match

Campodarsego
1.52
San Martino Speme
0.82

allows per match

Campodarsego
0.98
San Martino Speme
2.12

finishing

Campodarsego+0.00on par
San Martino Speme+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Campodarsego ↓

San Martino Speme →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Campodarsego or draw
82%
Campodarsego or San Martino Speme
77%
Draw or San Martino Speme
41%

Winning margin

Campodarsego wins by 2+
34%
San Martino Speme wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Campodarsego 1+ goals
84%
Campodarsego 2+ goals
54%
Campodarsego 3+ goals
27%
San Martino Speme 1+ goals
59%
San Martino Speme 2+ goals
23%
San Martino Speme 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Campodarsego (draw refunded)
76%
San Martino Speme (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Campodarsego at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.98 · 100 matches

San Martino Speme away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Campodarsego attack 1.52 + San Martino Speme defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.82

San Martino Speme attack 0.82 + Campodarsego defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Campodarsego scores more
59%
level
23%
San Martino Speme scores more
18%

Campodarsego at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Campodarsego will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'
D. Marini
45+3'
M. Colombi
45+3'
M. Colombi
72'
L. Moraschi
82'
M. Buratto
88'
D. Antinoro

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Campodarsego vs San Martino Speme

San Martino Speme beat Campodarsego 3-0 in Serie D - Girone C on February 6, 2022.

Goals: D. Marini (24'), L. Moraschi (72'), D. Antinoro (88').

The match was played at Centro Sportivo Il Gabbiano in Campodarsego.