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Campodarsego vs Portogruaro — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Campodarsego
Campodarsego
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Portogruaro
Portogruaro
3/28/2026Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 29Centro Sportivo Il Gabbiano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Campodarsego52%
×Draw25%
Portogruaro23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Campodarsego
1.61
Portogruaro
0.97

Campodarsego creates 66% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 70 away

creates per match

Campodarsego
1.52
Portogruaro
0.96

allows per match

Campodarsego
0.98
Portogruaro
1.71

finishing

Campodarsego+0.00on par
Portogruaro+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Campodarsego ↓

Portogruaro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Campodarsego or draw
77%
Campodarsego or Portogruaro
75%
Draw or Portogruaro
48%

Winning margin

Campodarsego wins by 2+
28%
Portogruaro wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Campodarsego 1+ goals
80%
Campodarsego 2+ goals
48%
Campodarsego 3+ goals
22%
Portogruaro 1+ goals
62%
Portogruaro 2+ goals
25%
Portogruaro 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Campodarsego (draw refunded)
70%
Portogruaro (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Campodarsego at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.98 · 100 matches

Portogruaro away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.71 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Campodarsego attack 1.52 + Portogruaro defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.61

Portogruaro attack 0.96 + Campodarsego defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Campodarsego scores more
52%
level
25%
Portogruaro scores more
23%

Campodarsego at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Campodarsego will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Campodarsego 2–0 Portogruaro

Campodarsego beat Portogruaro 2-0 in Serie D - Girone C on March 28, 2026.

The match was played at Centro Sportivo Il Gabbiano in Campodarsego.