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Campodarsego vs Mori Santo Stefano — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Campodarsego
Campodarsego
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Mori Santo Stefano
Mori Santo Stefano
M. Chinellato 61'
A. Pavanello 42'
J. Molina 90+6'
9/10/2023Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 1Centro Sportivo Il Gabbiano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Campodarsego64%
×Draw22%
Mori Santo Stefano15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Campodarsego
1.88
Mori Santo Stefano
0.76

Campodarsego creates 147% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 17 away

creates per match

Campodarsego
1.52
Mori Santo Stefano
0.53

allows per match

Campodarsego
0.98
Mori Santo Stefano
2.24

finishing

Campodarsego+0.00on par
Mori Santo Stefano+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Campodarsego ↓

Mori Santo Stefano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Campodarsego or draw
85%
Campodarsego or Mori Santo Stefano
78%
Draw or Mori Santo Stefano
36%

Winning margin

Campodarsego wins by 2+
38%
Mori Santo Stefano wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Campodarsego 1+ goals
85%
Campodarsego 2+ goals
56%
Campodarsego 3+ goals
29%
Mori Santo Stefano 1+ goals
53%
Mori Santo Stefano 2+ goals
18%
Mori Santo Stefano 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Campodarsego (draw refunded)
81%
Mori Santo Stefano (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Campodarsego at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.98 · 100 matches

Mori Santo Stefano away — creates 0.53, concedes 2.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Campodarsego attack 1.52 + Mori Santo Stefano defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.88

Mori Santo Stefano attack 0.53 + Campodarsego defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Campodarsego scores more
64%
level
22%
Mori Santo Stefano scores more
15%

Campodarsego at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Campodarsego will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'
A. Pavanello
61'
M. Chinellato
90+6'
J. Molina

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Campodarsego vs Mori Santo Stefano

Campodarsego beat Mori Santo Stefano 2-1 in Serie D - Girone C on September 10, 2023.

Goals: A. Pavanello (42'), M. Chinellato (61'), J. Molina (90+6').

The match was played at Centro Sportivo Il Gabbiano in Campodarsego.