Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Campodarsego vs Montecchio Maggiore — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Campodarsego
Campodarsego
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Montecchio Maggiore
Montecchio Maggiore
10/22/2023Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 7Centro Sportivo Il Gabbiano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Campodarsego45%
×Draw26%
Montecchio Maggiore29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Campodarsego
1.48
Montecchio Maggiore
1.15

Campodarsego creates 29% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 53 away

creates per match

Campodarsego
1.52
Montecchio Maggiore
1.32

allows per match

Campodarsego
0.98
Montecchio Maggiore
1.45

finishing

Campodarsego+0.00on par
Montecchio Maggiore+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Campodarsego ↓

Montecchio Maggiore →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Campodarsego or draw
71%
Campodarsego or Montecchio Maggiore
74%
Draw or Montecchio Maggiore
55%

Winning margin

Campodarsego wins by 2+
22%
Montecchio Maggiore wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Campodarsego 1+ goals
77%
Campodarsego 2+ goals
43%
Campodarsego 3+ goals
19%
Montecchio Maggiore 1+ goals
68%
Montecchio Maggiore 2+ goals
32%
Montecchio Maggiore 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Campodarsego (draw refunded)
60%
Montecchio Maggiore (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Campodarsego at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.98 · 100 matches

Montecchio Maggiore away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.45 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Campodarsego attack 1.52 + Montecchio Maggiore defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.48

Montecchio Maggiore attack 1.32 + Campodarsego defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Campodarsego scores more
45%
level
26%
Montecchio Maggiore scores more
29%

Campodarsego at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Campodarsego will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Campodarsego vs Montecchio Maggiore

Campodarsego beat Montecchio Maggiore 3-0 in Serie D - Girone C on October 22, 2023.

The match was played at Centro Sportivo Il Gabbiano in Campodarsego.