Campodarsego 2–1 Mestre: Result & Stats

Campodarsego

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Mestre

9/18/2024

Serie D - Girone C · Group C - 3Centro Sportivo Il Gabbiano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Campodarsego46%

×Draw28%

Mestre27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CampodarsegoExpected goals in this matchMestre

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

0.96

Campodarsego

1.35

Mestre

0.96

Campodarsego creates 41% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 101 away

1.52

creates per match

0.94

0.98

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Campodarsego

1.52

Mestre

0.94

allows per match

Campodarsego

0.98

Mestre

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Campodarsego+0.00on par

Mestre+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Campodarsego ↓

Mestre →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Campodarsego or draw

73%

Campodarsego or Mestre

72%

Draw or Mestre

54%

Winning margin

Campodarsego wins by 2+

22%

Mestre wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Campodarsego 1+ goals

74%

Campodarsego 2+ goals

39%

Campodarsego 3+ goals

15%

Mestre 1+ goals

62%

Mestre 2+ goals

25%

Mestre 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Campodarsego (draw refunded)

63%

Mestre (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Campodarsego at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.98 · 100 matches

Mestre away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.19 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Campodarsego attack 1.52 + Mestre defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.35

Mestre attack 0.94 + Campodarsego defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Campodarsego scores more

46%

level

28%

Mestre scores more

27%

Campodarsego at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Campodarsego will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff