Campodarsego 4–1 Lavis: Result & Stats

Campodarsego

FT

4 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Lavis

9/8/2024

Serie D - Girone C · Group C - 1Centro Sportivo Il Gabbiano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Campodarsego69%

×Draw19%

Lavis12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CampodarsegoExpected goals in this matchLavis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.18

0.80

Campodarsego

2.18

Lavis

0.80

Campodarsego creates 173% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 19 away

1.52

creates per match

0.63

0.98

allows per match

2.84

creates per match

Campodarsego

1.52

Lavis

0.63

allows per match

Campodarsego

0.98

Lavis

2.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Campodarsego+0.00on par

Lavis+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Campodarsego ↓

Lavis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Campodarsego or draw

88%

Campodarsego or Lavis

81%

Draw or Lavis

31%

Winning margin

Campodarsego wins by 2+

45%

Lavis wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Campodarsego 1+ goals

89%

Campodarsego 2+ goals

64%

Campodarsego 3+ goals

37%

Lavis 1+ goals

55%

Lavis 2+ goals

19%

Lavis 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Campodarsego (draw refunded)

85%

Lavis (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Campodarsego at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.98 · 100 matches

Lavis away — creates 0.63, concedes 2.84 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Campodarsego attack 1.52 + Lavis defence 2.84 → ÷2 → 2.18

Lavis attack 0.63 + Campodarsego defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Campodarsego scores more

69%

level

19%

Lavis scores more

12%

Campodarsego at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Campodarsego will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff