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Campodarsego vs Cjarlins Muzane — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Campodarsego
Campodarsego
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Cjarlins Muzane
Cjarlins Muzane
5/3/2026Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 34Centro Sportivo Il Gabbiano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Campodarsego44%
×Draw27%
Cjarlins Muzane29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Campodarsego
1.38
Cjarlins Muzane
1.06

Campodarsego creates 30% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 101 away

creates per match

Campodarsego
1.52
Cjarlins Muzane
1.15

allows per match

Campodarsego
0.98
Cjarlins Muzane
1.23

finishing

Campodarsego+0.00on par
Cjarlins Muzane+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Campodarsego ↓

Cjarlins Muzane →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Campodarsego or draw
71%
Campodarsego or Cjarlins Muzane
73%
Draw or Cjarlins Muzane
56%

Winning margin

Campodarsego wins by 2+
21%
Cjarlins Muzane wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Campodarsego 1+ goals
75%
Campodarsego 2+ goals
40%
Campodarsego 3+ goals
16%
Cjarlins Muzane 1+ goals
65%
Cjarlins Muzane 2+ goals
29%
Cjarlins Muzane 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Campodarsego (draw refunded)
60%
Cjarlins Muzane (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Campodarsego at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.98 · 100 matches

Cjarlins Muzane away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.23 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Campodarsego attack 1.52 + Cjarlins Muzane defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.38

Cjarlins Muzane attack 1.15 + Campodarsego defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Campodarsego scores more
44%
level
27%
Cjarlins Muzane scores more
29%

Campodarsego at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Campodarsego will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Campodarsego 4–1 Cjarlins Muzane

Campodarsego beat Cjarlins Muzane 4-1 in Serie D - Girone C on May 3, 2026.

The match was played at Centro Sportivo Il Gabbiano in Campodarsego.