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Campodarsego vs Bassano Virtus — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Campodarsego
Campodarsego
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Bassano Virtus
Bassano Virtus
4/12/2026Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 31Centro Sportivo Il Gabbiano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Campodarsego42%
×Draw29%
Bassano Virtus29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Campodarsego
1.22
Bassano Virtus
0.95

Campodarsego creates 28% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 53 away

creates per match

Campodarsego
1.52
Bassano Virtus
0.92

allows per match

Campodarsego
0.98
Bassano Virtus
0.92

finishing

Campodarsego+0.00on par
Bassano Virtus+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Campodarsego ↓

Bassano Virtus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Campodarsego or draw
71%
Campodarsego or Bassano Virtus
71%
Draw or Bassano Virtus
58%

Winning margin

Campodarsego wins by 2+
19%
Bassano Virtus wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Campodarsego 1+ goals
70%
Campodarsego 2+ goals
34%
Campodarsego 3+ goals
12%
Bassano Virtus 1+ goals
61%
Bassano Virtus 2+ goals
25%
Bassano Virtus 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Campodarsego (draw refunded)
60%
Bassano Virtus (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Campodarsego at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.98 · 100 matches

Bassano Virtus away — creates 0.92, concedes 0.92 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Campodarsego attack 1.52 + Bassano Virtus defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.22

Bassano Virtus attack 0.92 + Campodarsego defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Campodarsego scores more
42%
level
29%
Bassano Virtus scores more
29%

Campodarsego at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Campodarsego will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Campodarsego vs Bassano Virtus

Campodarsego beat Bassano Virtus 1-0 in Serie D - Girone C on April 12, 2026.

The match was played at Centro Sportivo Il Gabbiano in Campodarsego.