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Campodarsego vs Ambrosiana — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Campodarsego
Campodarsego
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Ambrosiana
Ambrosiana
M. Colombi 88' (pen)
M. Malago 72'
A. Konate Diagne 46'
E. Trento 43'
J. Boix 30'
2/27/2022Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 22Centro Sportivo Il Gabbiano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Campodarsego44%
×Draw27%
Ambrosiana29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Campodarsego
1.39
Ambrosiana
1.07

Campodarsego creates 30% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 31 away

creates per match

Campodarsego
1.52
Ambrosiana
1.16

allows per match

Campodarsego
0.98
Ambrosiana
1.26

finishing

Campodarsego+0.00on par
Ambrosiana+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Campodarsego ↓

Ambrosiana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Campodarsego or draw
71%
Campodarsego or Ambrosiana
73%
Draw or Ambrosiana
56%

Winning margin

Campodarsego wins by 2+
21%
Ambrosiana wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Campodarsego 1+ goals
75%
Campodarsego 2+ goals
40%
Campodarsego 3+ goals
16%
Ambrosiana 1+ goals
66%
Ambrosiana 2+ goals
29%
Ambrosiana 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Campodarsego (draw refunded)
60%
Ambrosiana (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Campodarsego at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.98 · 100 matches

Ambrosiana away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.26 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Campodarsego attack 1.52 + Ambrosiana defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.39

Ambrosiana attack 1.16 + Campodarsego defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Campodarsego scores more
44%
level
27%
Ambrosiana scores more
29%

Campodarsego at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Campodarsego will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'
J. Boix
43'
E. Trento
46'
A. Konate Diagne
72'
M. Malago
88'
M. ColombiPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Campodarsego 1–4 Ambrosiana

Ambrosiana beat Campodarsego 4-1 in Serie D - Girone C on February 27, 2022.

Goals: J. Boix (30'), E. Trento (43'), A. Konate Diagne (46'), M. Malago (72'), M. Colombi (88' pen).

The match was played at Centro Sportivo Il Gabbiano in Campodarsego.