Campo Novo 2–0 Santa Cruz MT: Result & Stats

Campo Novo

FT

2 – 0

Santa Cruz MT

5/26/2024

Matogrossense 2 · 1st Phase - 5Estádio Ary Tomazelli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Campo Novo26%

×Draw28%

Santa Cruz MT46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Campo NovoExpected goals in this matchSanta Cruz MT

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.95

1.35

Campo Novo

0.95

Santa Cruz MT

1.35

Santa Cruz MT creates 42% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

0.57

creates per match

0.56

2.14

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Campo Novo

0.57

Santa Cruz MT

0.56

allows per match

Campo Novo

2.14

Santa Cruz MT

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Campo Novo+0.00on par

Santa Cruz MT+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Campo Novo ↓

Santa Cruz MT →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–114%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Campo Novo or draw

54%

Campo Novo or Santa Cruz MT

72%

Draw or Santa Cruz MT

74%

Winning margin

Campo Novo wins by 2+

9%

Santa Cruz MT wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Campo Novo 1+ goals

61%

Campo Novo 2+ goals

25%

Campo Novo 3+ goals

7%

Santa Cruz MT 1+ goals

74%

Santa Cruz MT 2+ goals

39%

Santa Cruz MT 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Campo Novo (draw refunded)

36%

Santa Cruz MT (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Campo Novo at home — creates 0.57, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

Santa Cruz MT away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Campo Novo attack 0.57 + Santa Cruz MT defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 0.95

Santa Cruz MT attack 0.56 + Campo Novo defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Campo Novo scores more

26%

level

28%

Santa Cruz MT scores more

46%

Santa Cruz MT at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Santa Cruz MT will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff