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Campo Novo vs Cáceres — Matogrossense 2 2024

Campo Novo
Campo Novo
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Cáceres
Cáceres
5/4/2024Matogrossense 2Matogrossense 2 · 1st Phase - 2Estádio Ary Tomazelli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Campo Novo16%
×Draw23%
Cáceres61%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Campo Novo
0.78
Cáceres
1.77

Cáceres creates 127% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

creates per match

Campo Novo
0.57
Cáceres
1.40

allows per match

Campo Novo
2.14
Cáceres
1.00

finishing

Campo Novo+0.00on par
Cáceres+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Campo Novo ↓

Cáceres →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–114%
0–212%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Campo Novo or draw
39%
Campo Novo or Cáceres
77%
Draw or Cáceres
84%

Winning margin

Campo Novo wins by 2+
5%
Cáceres wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Campo Novo 1+ goals
54%
Campo Novo 2+ goals
18%
Campo Novo 3+ goals
4%
Cáceres 1+ goals
83%
Cáceres 2+ goals
53%
Cáceres 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Campo Novo (draw refunded)
21%
Cáceres (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Campo Novo at home — creates 0.57, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

Cáceres away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Campo Novo attack 0.57 + Cáceres defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.78

Cáceres attack 1.40 + Campo Novo defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Campo Novo scores more
16%
level
23%
Cáceres scores more
61%

Cáceres at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Cáceres will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Campo Novo vs Cáceres

Cáceres beat Campo Novo 3-1 in Matogrossense 2 on May 4, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Ary Tomazelli in Campo Novo do Parecis, Mato Grosso.