Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Campo Mourao U20 vs Cianorte U20 — Paranaense U20 2024

Campo Mourao U20
Campo Mourao U20
FT
1 – 2
Cianorte U20
Cianorte U20
4/8/2024Paranaense U20Paranaense U20 · 1st Stage - 6Estádio Odair Silvestre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Campo Mourao U2047%
×Draw19%
Cianorte U2034%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Campo Mourao U20
2.67
Cianorte U20
2.29

Campo Mourao U20 creates 17% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 12 away

creates per match

Campo Mourao U20
2.83
Cianorte U20
1.75

allows per match

Campo Mourao U20
2.83
Cianorte U20
2.50

finishing

Campo Mourao U20+0.00on par
Cianorte U20+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

83%Yes
  • Yes83
  • No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Campo Mourao U20 ↓

Cianorte U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–25%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
72%28%4.5
54%46%

Double chance

Campo Mourao U20 or draw
66%
Campo Mourao U20 or Cianorte U20
81%
Draw or Cianorte U20
53%

Winning margin

Campo Mourao U20 wins by 2+
29%
Cianorte U20 wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Campo Mourao U20 1+ goals
93%
Campo Mourao U20 2+ goals
74%
Campo Mourao U20 3+ goals
49%
Cianorte U20 1+ goals
90%
Cianorte U20 2+ goals
66%
Cianorte U20 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

Campo Mourao U20 (draw refunded)
58%
Cianorte U20 (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
79%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Campo Mourao U20 at home — creates 2.83, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

Cianorte U20 away — creates 1.75, concedes 2.50 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Campo Mourao U20 attack 2.83 + Cianorte U20 defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.67

Cianorte U20 attack 1.75 + Campo Mourao U20 defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Campo Mourao U20 scores more
47%
level
19%
Cianorte U20 scores more
34%

Campo Mourao U20 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Campo Mourao U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Campo Mourao U20 vs Cianorte U20

Cianorte U20 beat Campo Mourao U20 2-1 in Paranaense U20 on April 8, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Odair Silvestre in Campo Mourão, Paraná.