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Campo Mourao U20 vs Athletico PR U20 — Paranaense U20 2024

Campo Mourao U20
Campo Mourao U20
FT
0 – 9
Athletico PR U20
Athletico PR U20
5/10/2024Paranaense U20Paranaense U20 · 1st Stage - 11Estádio Odair Silvestre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Campo Mourao U2030%
×Draw19%
Athletico PR U2050%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Campo Mourao U20
1.94
Athletico PR U20
2.50

Athletico PR U20 creates 29% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 23 away

creates per match

Campo Mourao U20
2.83
Athletico PR U20
2.17

allows per match

Campo Mourao U20
2.83
Athletico PR U20
1.04

finishing

Campo Mourao U20+0.00on par
Athletico PR U20+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Campo Mourao U20 ↓

Athletico PR U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–27%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
82%18%3.5
64%36%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

Campo Mourao U20 or draw
50%
Campo Mourao U20 or Athletico PR U20
81%
Draw or Athletico PR U20
70%

Winning margin

Campo Mourao U20 wins by 2+
16%
Athletico PR U20 wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Campo Mourao U20 1+ goals
86%
Campo Mourao U20 2+ goals
58%
Campo Mourao U20 3+ goals
30%
Athletico PR U20 1+ goals
92%
Athletico PR U20 2+ goals
71%
Athletico PR U20 3+ goals
45%

Draw no bet

Campo Mourao U20 (draw refunded)
38%
Athletico PR U20 (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Campo Mourao U20 at home — creates 2.83, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

Athletico PR U20 away — creates 2.17, concedes 1.04 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Campo Mourao U20 attack 2.83 + Athletico PR U20 defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.94

Athletico PR U20 attack 2.17 + Campo Mourao U20 defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Campo Mourao U20 scores more
30%
level
19%
Athletico PR U20 scores more
50%

Athletico PR U20 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Athletico PR U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paranaense U20: Campo Mourao U20 0–9 Athletico PR U20

Athletico PR U20 beat Campo Mourao U20 9-0 in Paranaense U20 on May 10, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Odair Silvestre in Campo Mourão, Paraná.