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Campo Mourao U20 vs Araucaria U20 — Paranaense U20 2024

Campo Mourao U20
Campo Mourao U20
FT
0 – 1
Araucaria U20
Araucaria U20
5/18/2024Paranaense U20Paranaense U20 · 1st Stage - 12Estádio Odair Silvestre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Campo Mourao U2044%
×Draw20%
Araucaria U2036%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Campo Mourao U20
2.27
Araucaria U20
2.04

Campo Mourao U20 creates 11% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 25 away

creates per match

Campo Mourao U20
2.83
Araucaria U20
1.24

allows per match

Campo Mourao U20
2.83
Araucaria U20
1.72

finishing

Campo Mourao U20+0.00on par
Araucaria U20+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Campo Mourao U20 ↓

Araucaria U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Campo Mourao U20 or draw
64%
Campo Mourao U20 or Araucaria U20
80%
Draw or Araucaria U20
56%

Winning margin

Campo Mourao U20 wins by 2+
26%
Araucaria U20 wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Campo Mourao U20 1+ goals
90%
Campo Mourao U20 2+ goals
66%
Campo Mourao U20 3+ goals
39%
Araucaria U20 1+ goals
87%
Araucaria U20 2+ goals
60%
Araucaria U20 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Campo Mourao U20 (draw refunded)
55%
Araucaria U20 (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Campo Mourao U20 at home — creates 2.83, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

Araucaria U20 away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.72 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Campo Mourao U20 attack 2.83 + Araucaria U20 defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 2.27

Araucaria U20 attack 1.24 + Campo Mourao U20 defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Campo Mourao U20 scores more
44%
level
20%
Araucaria U20 scores more
36%

Campo Mourao U20 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Campo Mourao U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paranaense U20: Campo Mourao U20 0–1 Araucaria U20

Araucaria U20 beat Campo Mourao U20 1-0 in Paranaense U20 on May 18, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Odair Silvestre in Campo Mourão, Paraná.