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Campo Mourao U20 vs Arapongas U20 — Paranaense U20 2024

Campo Mourao U20
Campo Mourao U20
FT
4 – 0
Arapongas U20
Arapongas U20
3/25/2024Paranaense U20Paranaense U20 · 1st Stage - 4Estádio Odair Silvestre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Campo Mourao U2080%
×Draw11%
Arapongas U209%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Campo Mourao U20
4.17
Arapongas U20
1.50

Campo Mourao U20 creates 178% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Campo Mourao U20
2.83
Arapongas U20
0.17

allows per match

Campo Mourao U20
2.83
Arapongas U20
5.50

finishing

Campo Mourao U20+0.00on par
Arapongas U20+0.00on par

Total goals

91%Over
  • Over91
  • Under9

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Campo Mourao U20 ↓

Arapongas U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–12%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–17%
4–26%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (7%) · grid covers 67% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
91%9%3.5
79%21%4.5
62%38%

Double chance

Campo Mourao U20 or draw
91%
Campo Mourao U20 or Arapongas U20
89%
Draw or Arapongas U20
20%

Winning margin

Campo Mourao U20 wins by 2+
64%
Arapongas U20 wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Campo Mourao U20 1+ goals
98%
Campo Mourao U20 2+ goals
91%
Campo Mourao U20 3+ goals
75%
Arapongas U20 1+ goals
78%
Arapongas U20 2+ goals
44%
Arapongas U20 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Campo Mourao U20 (draw refunded)
89%
Arapongas U20 (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Campo Mourao U20 at home — creates 2.83, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

Arapongas U20 away — creates 0.17, concedes 5.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Campo Mourao U20 attack 2.83 + Arapongas U20 defence 5.50 → ÷2 → 4.17

Arapongas U20 attack 0.17 + Campo Mourao U20 defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Campo Mourao U20 scores more
80%
level
11%
Arapongas U20 scores more
9%

Campo Mourao U20 at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Campo Mourao U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Campo Mourao U20 vs Arapongas U20

Campo Mourao U20 beat Arapongas U20 4-0 in Paranaense U20 on March 25, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Odair Silvestre in Campo Mourão, Paraná.