Campinense 1–1 Floresta: Result & Stats | Serie D

Campinense

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Floresta

Jóbson 54'

Delsinho 61'

10/4/2020

Serie D · Round 4Estádio Governador Ernani Sátyro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Campinense48%

×Draw28%

Floresta24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CampinenseExpected goals in this matchFloresta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.85

Campinense

1.33

Floresta

0.85

Campinense creates 56% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 18 away

1.54

creates per match

1.22

0.49

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Campinense

1.54

Floresta

1.22

allows per match

Campinense

0.49

Floresta

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Campinense+0.00on par

Floresta+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Campinense ↓

Floresta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Campinense or draw

76%

Campinense or Floresta

72%

Draw or Floresta

52%

Winning margin

Campinense wins by 2+

23%

Floresta wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Campinense 1+ goals

74%

Campinense 2+ goals

38%

Campinense 3+ goals

15%

Floresta 1+ goals

57%

Floresta 2+ goals

21%

Floresta 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Campinense (draw refunded)

67%

Floresta (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Campinense at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.49 · 35 matches

Floresta away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.11 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Campinense attack 1.54 + Floresta defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.33

Floresta attack 1.22 + Campinense defence 0.49 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Campinense scores more

48%

level

28%

Floresta scores more

24%

Campinense at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Campinense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

Dorgival← Anderson

54'

Jóbson

57'

Aleff← Téssio

57'

Anderson← Jóbson

57'

Matheus← Diego

61'

Delsinho

72'

Mattheus← Fabinho

72'

Michael← Weverson

81'

Paulo Vyctor← Delsinho

Campinense

Floresta

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Jóbson

Júnior

Ibiapino

Manager: Givanildo Sales

6'▲Dorgival←▼Anderson

57'▲Aleff←▼Téssio

57'▲Anderson←▼Jóbson

72'▲Mattheus←▼Fabinho

72'▲Michael←▼Weverson

Campinense substitutes

DorgivalAleffAndersonMattheusMichaelTravassosCaioChulapaKikoWellingtonChiquinho

Manager: Leston Júnior

57'▲Matheus←▼Diego

81'▲Paulo Vyctor←▼Delsinho

Floresta substitutes

MatheusVyctorYtaloJunhoMarquinhoRonaldoVeraldo