Campinense 2–1 Central: Result & Stats | Serie D

Campinense

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Central

Fabio 67'

Juliano 49'

Pedro 66'

8/14/2021

Serie D · Round 11Estádio Governador Ernani Sátyro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Campinense50%

×Draw30%

Central20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CampinenseExpected goals in this matchCentral

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.67

Campinense

1.25

Central

0.67

Campinense creates 87% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 37 away

1.54

creates per match

0.84

0.49

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

Campinense

1.54

Central

0.84

allows per match

Campinense

0.49

Central

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Campinense+0.00on par

Central+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Campinense ↓

Central →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–110%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Campinense or draw

80%

Campinense or Central

70%

Draw or Central

50%

Winning margin

Campinense wins by 2+

23%

Central wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Campinense 1+ goals

71%

Campinense 2+ goals

36%

Campinense 3+ goals

13%

Central 1+ goals

49%

Central 2+ goals

15%

Central 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Campinense (draw refunded)

72%

Central (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Campinense at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.49 · 35 matches

Central away — creates 0.84, concedes 0.95 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Campinense attack 1.54 + Central defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.25

Central attack 0.84 + Campinense defence 0.49 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Campinense scores more

50%

level

30%

Central scores more

20%

Campinense at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Campinense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

49'

Juliano

56'

Ewerton← Eduardo Favero

56'

Reinaldo← Matheus Rosas

66'

Pedro

67'

Fabio

73'

Marcos Nunes← Anselmo

73'

Matheus Régis← Juliano

81'

Cleidson Pink← Patrick

81'

Wendel← Marcelinho

85'

Sinho← Jardeu

85'

Washington← Rogerinho

87'

Denis← Fabio

Campinense

Central

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Juliano

Rafinha

▼

Anselmo

⚽

▼

Fabio

▼

Marcelinh

Manager: Ranielle Ribeiro

73'▲Marcos Nunes←▼Anselmo

73'▲Matheus Régis←▼Juliano

81'▲Cleidson Pink←▼Patrick

81'▲Wendel←▼Marcelinho

87'▲Denis←▼Fabio

Campinense substitutes

NunesRégisPinkWendelDenisCamiloAllefeClaudinhoMarinhoGabrielPeixeiroRuan

Manager: Nilson Corrêa

56'▲Ewerton←▼Eduardo Favero

56'▲Reinaldo←▼Matheus Rosas

85'▲Sinho←▼Jardeu

85'▲Washington←▼Rogerinho

Central substitutes

EwertonReinaldoSinhoWashingtonAntonioKedingPatrickAnderson