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Bekaa vs Shabab Al Ghazieh — Premier League 2025

Bekaa
Bekaa
FT
1 – 2
Shabab Al Ghazieh
Shabab Al Ghazieh
2/2/2019Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 13Al-Nabi Shayth Stadium (Al-Nabi Shayth)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Bekaa33%
×Draw27%
Shabab Al Ghazieh40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bekaa
1.18
Shabab Al Ghazieh
1.31

Shabab Al Ghazieh creates 11% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 55 away

creates per match

Bekaa
0.53
Shabab Al Ghazieh
0.87

allows per match

Bekaa
1.76
Shabab Al Ghazieh
1.82

finishing

Bekaa+0.00on par
Shabab Al Ghazieh+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bekaa ↓

Shabab Al Ghazieh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Bekaa or draw
60%
Bekaa or Shabab Al Ghazieh
73%
Draw or Shabab Al Ghazieh
67%

Winning margin

Bekaa wins by 2+
14%
Shabab Al Ghazieh wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Bekaa 1+ goals
69%
Bekaa 2+ goals
33%
Bekaa 3+ goals
12%
Shabab Al Ghazieh 1+ goals
73%
Shabab Al Ghazieh 2+ goals
38%
Shabab Al Ghazieh 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Bekaa (draw refunded)
46%
Shabab Al Ghazieh (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bekaa at home — creates 0.53, concedes 1.76 · 17 matches

Shabab Al Ghazieh away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.82 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bekaa attack 0.53 + Shabab Al Ghazieh defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.18

Shabab Al Ghazieh attack 0.87 + Bekaa defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Bekaa scores more
33%
level
27%
Shabab Al Ghazieh scores more
40%

Shabab Al Ghazieh at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Shabab Al Ghazieh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bekaa vs Shabab Al Ghazieh

Shabab Al Ghazieh beat Bekaa 2-1 in Premier League on February 2, 2019.

The match was played at Al-Nabi Shayth Stadium (Al-Nabi Shayth).