Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Campbelltown City vs West Adelaide — South Australia NPL 2026

Campbelltown City
Campbelltown City
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
West Adelaide
West Adelaide
4/8/2023South Australia NPLSouth Australia NPL · Round 7Steve Woodcock Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Campbelltown City58%
×Draw21%
West Adelaide21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Campbelltown City
2.08
West Adelaide
1.18

Campbelltown City creates 76% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 29 away

creates per match

Campbelltown City
1.98
West Adelaide
1.00

allows per match

Campbelltown City
1.35
West Adelaide
2.17

finishing

Campbelltown City+0.00on par
West Adelaide+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Campbelltown City ↓

West Adelaide →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Campbelltown City or draw
79%
Campbelltown City or West Adelaide
79%
Draw or West Adelaide
42%

Winning margin

Campbelltown City wins by 2+
35%
West Adelaide wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Campbelltown City 1+ goals
87%
Campbelltown City 2+ goals
61%
Campbelltown City 3+ goals
34%
West Adelaide 1+ goals
69%
West Adelaide 2+ goals
33%
West Adelaide 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Campbelltown City (draw refunded)
73%
West Adelaide (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Campbelltown City at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.35 · 89 matches

West Adelaide away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.17 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Campbelltown City attack 1.98 + West Adelaide defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.08

West Adelaide attack 1.00 + Campbelltown City defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Campbelltown City scores more
58%
level
21%
West Adelaide scores more
21%

Campbelltown City at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Campbelltown City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

South Australia NPL: Campbelltown City 1–1 West Adelaide

Campbelltown City and West Adelaide drew 1-1 in South Australia NPL on April 8, 2023.

The match was played at Steve Woodcock Sports Centre in Adelaide.