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Campbelltown City vs Croydon Kings — South Australia NPL 2026

Campbelltown City
Campbelltown City
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Croydon Kings
Croydon Kings
5/1/2026South Australia NPLSouth Australia NPL · Round 8Steve Woodcock Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Campbelltown City45%
×Draw23%
Croydon Kings32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Campbelltown City
1.77
Croydon Kings
1.48

Campbelltown City creates 20% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 86 away

creates per match

Campbelltown City
1.97
Croydon Kings
1.64

allows per match

Campbelltown City
1.33
Croydon Kings
1.58

finishing

Campbelltown City+0.00on par
Croydon Kings+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Campbelltown City ↓

Croydon Kings →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Campbelltown City or draw
68%
Campbelltown City or Croydon Kings
77%
Draw or Croydon Kings
55%

Winning margin

Campbelltown City wins by 2+
24%
Croydon Kings wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Campbelltown City 1+ goals
83%
Campbelltown City 2+ goals
53%
Campbelltown City 3+ goals
26%
Croydon Kings 1+ goals
77%
Croydon Kings 2+ goals
43%
Croydon Kings 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Campbelltown City (draw refunded)
58%
Croydon Kings (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Campbelltown City at home — creates 1.97, concedes 1.33 · 90 matches

Croydon Kings away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.58 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Campbelltown City attack 1.97 + Croydon Kings defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.77

Croydon Kings attack 1.64 + Campbelltown City defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Campbelltown City scores more
45%
level
23%
Croydon Kings scores more
32%

Campbelltown City at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Campbelltown City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Campbelltown City vs Croydon Kings

Croydon Kings beat Campbelltown City 2-1 in South Australia NPL on May 1, 2026.

The match was played at Steve Woodcock Sports Centre in Adelaide.