Campbelltown City 2–1 Adelaide Olympic

Campbelltown City

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Adelaide Olympic

8/11/2023

South Australia NPL · Round 22Steve Woodcock Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Campbelltown City52%

×Draw23%

Adelaide Olympic25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Campbelltown CityExpected goals in this matchAdelaide Olympic

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.23

Campbelltown City

1.85

Adelaide Olympic

1.23

Campbelltown City creates 50% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 62 away

1.97

creates per match

1.13

1.33

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Campbelltown City

1.97

Adelaide Olympic

1.13

allows per match

Campbelltown City

1.33

Adelaide Olympic

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Campbelltown City+0.00on par

Adelaide Olympic+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Campbelltown City ↓

Adelaide Olympic →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Campbelltown City or draw

75%

Campbelltown City or Adelaide Olympic

77%

Draw or Adelaide Olympic

48%

Winning margin

Campbelltown City wins by 2+

29%

Adelaide Olympic wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Campbelltown City 1+ goals

84%

Campbelltown City 2+ goals

55%

Campbelltown City 3+ goals

28%

Adelaide Olympic 1+ goals

71%

Adelaide Olympic 2+ goals

35%

Adelaide Olympic 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Campbelltown City (draw refunded)

67%

Adelaide Olympic (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Campbelltown City at home — creates 1.97, concedes 1.33 · 90 matches

Adelaide Olympic away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.73 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Campbelltown City attack 1.97 + Adelaide Olympic defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.85

Adelaide Olympic attack 1.13 + Campbelltown City defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Campbelltown City scores more

52%

level

23%

Adelaide Olympic scores more

25%

Campbelltown City at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Campbelltown City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff