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Campanario vs RCP Valverdeño — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Campanario
Campanario
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
RCP Valverdeño
RCP Valverdeño
3/28/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 2nd Phase - 1Estadio de Municipal Santo Domingo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Campanario49%
×Draw27%
RCP Valverdeño23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Campanario
1.39
RCP Valverdeño
0.86

Campanario creates 62% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 46 away

creates per match

Campanario
0.93
RCP Valverdeño
0.72

allows per match

Campanario
1.00
RCP Valverdeño
1.85

finishing

Campanario+0.00on par
RCP Valverdeño+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Campanario ↓

RCP Valverdeño →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Campanario or draw
77%
Campanario or RCP Valverdeño
73%
Draw or RCP Valverdeño
51%

Winning margin

Campanario wins by 2+
24%
RCP Valverdeño wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Campanario 1+ goals
75%
Campanario 2+ goals
40%
Campanario 3+ goals
16%
RCP Valverdeño 1+ goals
58%
RCP Valverdeño 2+ goals
21%
RCP Valverdeño 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Campanario (draw refunded)
68%
RCP Valverdeño (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Campanario at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

RCP Valverdeño away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.85 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Campanario attack 0.93 + RCP Valverdeño defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.39

RCP Valverdeño attack 0.72 + Campanario defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Campanario scores more
49%
level
27%
RCP Valverdeño scores more
23%

Campanario at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Campanario will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Campanario vs RCP Valverdeño

Campanario beat RCP Valverdeño 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on March 28, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio de Municipal Santo Domingo in El Ejido.