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Campanario vs Fuente Cantos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Campanario
Campanario
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Fuente Cantos
Fuente Cantos
4/11/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 2nd Phase - 3Estadio de Municipal Santo Domingo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Campanario45%
×Draw28%
Fuente Cantos27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Campanario
1.30
Fuente Cantos
0.95

Campanario creates 37% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 61 away

creates per match

Campanario
0.93
Fuente Cantos
0.89

allows per match

Campanario
1.00
Fuente Cantos
1.67

finishing

Campanario+0.00on par
Fuente Cantos+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Campanario ↓

Fuente Cantos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Campanario or draw
73%
Campanario or Fuente Cantos
72%
Draw or Fuente Cantos
55%

Winning margin

Campanario wins by 2+
20%
Fuente Cantos wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Campanario 1+ goals
73%
Campanario 2+ goals
37%
Campanario 3+ goals
14%
Fuente Cantos 1+ goals
61%
Fuente Cantos 2+ goals
25%
Fuente Cantos 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Campanario (draw refunded)
62%
Fuente Cantos (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Campanario at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

Fuente Cantos away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.67 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Campanario attack 0.93 + Fuente Cantos defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.30

Fuente Cantos attack 0.89 + Campanario defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Campanario scores more
45%
level
28%
Fuente Cantos scores more
27%

Campanario at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Campanario will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14: Campanario 1–0 Fuente Cantos

Campanario beat Fuente Cantos 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on April 11, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio de Municipal Santo Domingo in El Ejido.