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Cametá vs Paysandu — League #627 2026

Cametá
Cametá
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Paysandu
Paysandu
5/14/2023League #627League #627 · 3rd Place FinalEstádio Municipal Orfelino Martins Valente

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Cametá59%
×Draw27%
Paysandu14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cametá
1.44
Paysandu
0.56

Cametá creates 157% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 4 away

creates per match

Cametá
1.13
Paysandu
0.50

allows per match

Cametá
0.63
Paysandu
1.75

finishing

Cametá+0.00on par
Paysandu+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cametá ↓

Paysandu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Cametá or draw
86%
Cametá or Paysandu
73%
Draw or Paysandu
41%

Winning margin

Cametá wins by 2+
30%
Paysandu wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Cametá 1+ goals
76%
Cametá 2+ goals
42%
Cametá 3+ goals
18%
Paysandu 1+ goals
43%
Paysandu 2+ goals
11%
Paysandu 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Cametá (draw refunded)
80%
Paysandu (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cametá at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.63 · 8 matches

Paysandu away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cametá attack 1.13 + Paysandu defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.44

Paysandu attack 0.50 + Cametá defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Cametá scores more
59%
level
27%
Paysandu scores more
14%

Cametá at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Cametá will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #627: Cametá 1–1 Paysandu

Cametá and Paysandu drew 1-1 in League #627 on May 14, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Orfelino Martins Valente in Cametá, Pará.