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Cametá vs Bragantino PA — League #627 2026

Cametá
Cametá
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Bragantino PA
Bragantino PA
3/12/2023League #627League #627 · 1st Phase - 6Estádio Municipal Orfelino Martins Valente

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Cametá50%
×Draw30%
Bragantino PA20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cametá
1.23
Bragantino PA
0.65

Cametá creates 89% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

creates per match

Cametá
1.13
Bragantino PA
0.67

allows per match

Cametá
0.63
Bragantino PA
1.33

finishing

Cametá+0.00on par
Bragantino PA+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cametá ↓

Bragantino PA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Cametá or draw
80%
Cametá or Bragantino PA
70%
Draw or Bragantino PA
50%

Winning margin

Cametá wins by 2+
23%
Bragantino PA wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Cametá 1+ goals
71%
Cametá 2+ goals
35%
Cametá 3+ goals
13%
Bragantino PA 1+ goals
48%
Bragantino PA 2+ goals
14%
Bragantino PA 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Cametá (draw refunded)
72%
Bragantino PA (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cametá at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.63 · 8 matches

Bragantino PA away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cametá attack 1.13 + Bragantino PA defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.23

Bragantino PA attack 0.67 + Cametá defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Cametá scores more
50%
level
30%
Bragantino PA scores more
20%

Cametá at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Cametá will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cametá vs Bragantino PA

Cametá beat Bragantino PA 2-0 in League #627 on March 12, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Orfelino Martins Valente in Cametá, Pará.