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Cameroon vs Nigeria — Friendlies 2026

Cameroon
Cameroon
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Nigeria
Nigeria
6/8/2021FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1Wiener Neustädter Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Cameroon45%
×Draw29%
Nigeria26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cameroon
1.23
Nigeria
0.85

Cameroon creates 45% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 21 away

creates per match

Cameroon
0.80
Nigeria
1.00

allows per match

Cameroon
0.70
Nigeria
1.67

finishing

Cameroon+0.00on par
Nigeria+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cameroon ↓

Nigeria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Cameroon or draw
74%
Cameroon or Nigeria
71%
Draw or Nigeria
55%

Winning margin

Cameroon wins by 2+
20%
Nigeria wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Cameroon 1+ goals
71%
Cameroon 2+ goals
35%
Cameroon 3+ goals
13%
Nigeria 1+ goals
57%
Nigeria 2+ goals
21%
Nigeria 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Cameroon (draw refunded)
64%
Nigeria (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cameroon at home — creates 0.80, concedes 0.70 · 10 matches

Nigeria away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cameroon attack 0.80 + Nigeria defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.23

Nigeria attack 1.00 + Cameroon defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Cameroon scores more
45%
level
29%
Nigeria scores more
26%

Cameroon at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Cameroon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cameroon vs Nigeria

Cameroon and Nigeria drew 0-0 in Friendlies on June 8, 2021.

The match was played at Wiener Neustädter Stadion in Wiener Neustadt.