Camelon Juniors 0–0 Newtongrange Star

Camelon Juniors

Pens

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Newtongrange Star

9/2/2023

FA Cup · 2nd Preliminary RoundCarmuirs Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Camelon Juniors25%

×Draw21%

Newtongrange Star54%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Camelon JuniorsExpected goals in this matchNewtongrange Star

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

2.19

Camelon Juniors

1.45

Newtongrange Star

2.19

Newtongrange Star creates 51% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

1.50

creates per match

3.00

1.38

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Camelon Juniors

1.50

Newtongrange Star

3.00

allows per match

Camelon Juniors

1.38

Newtongrange Star

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Camelon Juniors+0.00on par

Newtongrange Star+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Camelon Juniors ↓

Newtongrange Star →

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–35%

0–43%

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Camelon Juniors or draw

46%

Camelon Juniors or Newtongrange Star

79%

Draw or Newtongrange Star

75%

Winning margin

Camelon Juniors wins by 2+

11%

Newtongrange Star wins by 2+

33%

Team goals

Camelon Juniors 1+ goals

77%

Camelon Juniors 2+ goals

42%

Camelon Juniors 3+ goals

18%

Newtongrange Star 1+ goals

89%

Newtongrange Star 2+ goals

64%

Newtongrange Star 3+ goals

37%

Draw no bet

Camelon Juniors (draw refunded)

32%

Newtongrange Star (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Camelon Juniors at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

Newtongrange Star away — creates 3.00, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Camelon Juniors attack 1.50 + Newtongrange Star defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.45

Newtongrange Star attack 3.00 + Camelon Juniors defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 2.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 54%?"

Camelon Juniors scores more

25%

level

21%

Newtongrange Star scores more

54%

Newtongrange Star at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Newtongrange Star will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff