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Camelon Juniors vs Newton Stewart — FA Cup 2019

Camelon Juniors
Camelon Juniors
FT
4 – 0
Newton Stewart
Newton Stewart
8/10/2019FA CupFA Cup · 1st Preliminary RoundCarmuirs Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Camelon Juniors67%
×Draw18%
Newton Stewart14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Camelon Juniors
2.35
Newton Stewart
0.99

Camelon Juniors creates 137% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

creates per match

Camelon Juniors
1.50
Newton Stewart
0.60

allows per match

Camelon Juniors
1.38
Newton Stewart
3.20

finishing

Camelon Juniors+0.00on par
Newton Stewart+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Camelon Juniors ↓

Newton Stewart →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Camelon Juniors or draw
86%
Camelon Juniors or Newton Stewart
82%
Draw or Newton Stewart
33%

Winning margin

Camelon Juniors wins by 2+
44%
Newton Stewart wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Camelon Juniors 1+ goals
90%
Camelon Juniors 2+ goals
68%
Camelon Juniors 3+ goals
41%
Newton Stewart 1+ goals
63%
Newton Stewart 2+ goals
26%
Newton Stewart 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Camelon Juniors (draw refunded)
82%
Newton Stewart (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Camelon Juniors at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

Newton Stewart away — creates 0.60, concedes 3.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Camelon Juniors attack 1.50 + Newton Stewart defence 3.20 → ÷2 → 2.35

Newton Stewart attack 0.60 + Camelon Juniors defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Camelon Juniors scores more
67%
level
18%
Newton Stewart scores more
14%

Camelon Juniors at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Camelon Juniors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Camelon Juniors 4–0 Newton Stewart

Camelon Juniors beat Newton Stewart 4-0 in FA Cup on August 10, 2019.

The match was played at Carmuirs Park in Camelon.