Camelon Juniors 1–3 Elgin City: Result & Stats

Camelon Juniors

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Elgin City

J. Kirkpatrick 44'

L. Williamson 77' (OG)

K. Hester 58', 13'

1/17/2026

FA Cup · Round of 32

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Camelon Juniors48%

×Draw22%

Elgin City30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Camelon JuniorsExpected goals in this matchElgin City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.44

Camelon Juniors

1.88

Elgin City

1.44

Camelon Juniors creates 31% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 4 away

1.50

creates per match

1.50

1.38

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

Camelon Juniors

1.50

Elgin City

1.50

allows per match

Camelon Juniors

1.38

Elgin City

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Camelon Juniors+0.00on par

Elgin City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Camelon Juniors ↓

Elgin City →

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Camelon Juniors or draw

70%

Camelon Juniors or Elgin City

78%

Draw or Elgin City

52%

Winning margin

Camelon Juniors wins by 2+

27%

Elgin City wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Camelon Juniors 1+ goals

85%

Camelon Juniors 2+ goals

56%

Camelon Juniors 3+ goals

29%

Elgin City 1+ goals

76%

Elgin City 2+ goals

42%

Elgin City 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Camelon Juniors (draw refunded)

62%

Elgin City (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Camelon Juniors at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

Elgin City away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Camelon Juniors attack 1.50 + Elgin City defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.88

Elgin City attack 1.50 + Camelon Juniors defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

Camelon Juniors scores more

48%

level

22%

Elgin City scores more

30%

Camelon Juniors at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Camelon Juniors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

K. Hester↳ J. Murray

23'

L. Williamson

44'

J. Kirkpatrick↳ J. Breen

45+2'

G. Taylor

45+3'

B. Cameron

45+4'

J. McCormack

45+2'

J. Walton← J. Kirkpatrick

58'

64'

65'

68'

69'

69'

D. Watson← R. Kavanagh

76'

N. Wade

77'

L. WilliamsonOwn goal

78'

R. Sargent← K. Hester

80'

C. Rowley

89'

B. Cameron← M. Gallagher

89'

C. Ewan← A. Spalding

90+1'

C. Ewan

Camelon

Elgin

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

⚽

▼

🥅

▼

45+2'▲J. Walton←▼J. Kirkpatrick

69'▲L. McQuaid←▼J. Breen

69'▲D. Watson←▼R. Kavanagh

Camelon Juniors substitutes

4McCormack7Walton8McQuaid11Watson21Gibb26McElwee28Knox

Manager: Allan Hale

64'▲O. Cairns←▼K. Girvan

65'▲L. Hyde←▼J. Walker

78'▲R. Sargent←▼K. Hester

89'▲B. Cameron←▼M. Gallagher

89'▲C. Ewan←▼A. Spalding

Elgin City substitutes

28McHale8Cameron11Sargent12Cairns14O'Connor15Ewan17Hyde