Camelon Juniors 2–1 Edinburgh City: Result & Stats

Camelon Juniors

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Edinburgh City

D. Watson 90'

R. Kavanagh 48'

L. McArthur 81'

11/29/2025

FA Cup · Round of 64

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Camelon Juniors57%

×Draw23%

Edinburgh City20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Camelon JuniorsExpected goals in this matchEdinburgh City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

0.97

Camelon Juniors

1.82

Edinburgh City

0.97

Camelon Juniors creates 88% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

1.50

creates per match

0.57

1.38

allows per match

2.14

creates per match

Camelon Juniors

1.50

Edinburgh City

0.57

allows per match

Camelon Juniors

1.38

Edinburgh City

2.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Camelon Juniors+0.00on par

Edinburgh City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Camelon Juniors ↓

Edinburgh City →

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Camelon Juniors or draw

80%

Camelon Juniors or Edinburgh City

77%

Draw or Edinburgh City

43%

Winning margin

Camelon Juniors wins by 2+

33%

Edinburgh City wins by 2+

Team goals

Camelon Juniors 1+ goals

84%

Camelon Juniors 2+ goals

54%

Camelon Juniors 3+ goals

27%

Edinburgh City 1+ goals

62%

Edinburgh City 2+ goals

25%

Edinburgh City 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Camelon Juniors (draw refunded)

74%

Edinburgh City (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Camelon Juniors at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

Edinburgh City away — creates 0.57, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Camelon Juniors attack 1.50 + Edinburgh City defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.82

Edinburgh City attack 0.57 + Camelon Juniors defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 57%?"

Camelon Juniors scores more

57%

level

23%

Edinburgh City scores more

20%

Camelon Juniors at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Camelon Juniors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

B. Scarborough

40'

Z. Miller

48'

R. Kavanagh↳ B. Scarborough

69'

70'

75'

76'

77'

S. Sinclair← Z. Miller

81'

L. McArthur

83'

D. Watson← R. Kavanagh

90'

J. Walton

90'

B. Barrett

90'

D. Watson↳ L. McQuaid

Camelon

Edinburgh

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Kavanagh

70'▲S. Burns←▼R. McElwee

77'▲S. Sinclair←▼Z. Miller

83'▲D. Watson←▼R. Kavanagh

Camelon Juniors substitutes

2Burns6Breen10Sinclair11Watson12MacPherson21Macgowan27Beuzelin

69'▲E. Lynch←▼J. Duncan

Edinburgh City substitutes

12Marinovic6Lynch16Brodie

FA Cup: Camelon Juniors 2–1 Edinburgh City

Camelon Juniors beat Edinburgh City 2-1 in FA Cup on November 29, 2025.

Goals: R. Kavanagh (48'), L. McArthur (81'), D. Watson (90').

Camelon Juniors vs Edinburgh City — FA Cup 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

FA Cup: Camelon Juniors 2–1 Edinburgh City