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Camelon Juniors vs Civil Service Strollers — FA Cup 2019

Camelon Juniors
Camelon Juniors
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Civil Service Strollers
Civil Service Strollers
9/23/2023FA CupFA Cup · 1st RoundCarmuirs Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Camelon Juniors41%
×Draw23%
Civil Service Strollers36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Camelon Juniors
1.75
Civil Service Strollers
1.62

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

creates per match

Camelon Juniors
1.50
Civil Service Strollers
1.86

allows per match

Camelon Juniors
1.38
Civil Service Strollers
2.00

finishing

Camelon Juniors+0.00on par
Civil Service Strollers+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Camelon Juniors ↓

Civil Service Strollers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Camelon Juniors or draw
64%
Camelon Juniors or Civil Service Strollers
77%
Draw or Civil Service Strollers
59%

Winning margin

Camelon Juniors wins by 2+
22%
Civil Service Strollers wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Camelon Juniors 1+ goals
83%
Camelon Juniors 2+ goals
52%
Camelon Juniors 3+ goals
25%
Civil Service Strollers 1+ goals
80%
Civil Service Strollers 2+ goals
48%
Civil Service Strollers 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Camelon Juniors (draw refunded)
53%
Civil Service Strollers (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Camelon Juniors at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

Civil Service Strollers away — creates 1.86, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Camelon Juniors attack 1.50 + Civil Service Strollers defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.75

Civil Service Strollers attack 1.86 + Camelon Juniors defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Camelon Juniors scores more
41%
level
23%
Civil Service Strollers scores more
36%

Camelon Juniors at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Camelon Juniors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Camelon Juniors 1–2 Civil Service Strollers

Civil Service Strollers beat Camelon Juniors 2-1 in FA Cup on September 23, 2023.

The match was played at Carmuirs Park in Camelon.