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Camelon Juniors vs Auchinleck Talbot — FA Cup 2019

Camelon Juniors
Camelon Juniors
FT
0 – 2
Auchinleck Talbot
Auchinleck Talbot
8/31/2019FA CupFA Cup · 2nd Preliminary RoundCarmuirs Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Camelon Juniors23%
×Draw21%
Auchinleck Talbot57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Camelon Juniors
1.29
Auchinleck Talbot
2.15

Auchinleck Talbot creates 67% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 13 away

creates per match

Camelon Juniors
1.50
Auchinleck Talbot
2.92

allows per match

Camelon Juniors
1.38
Auchinleck Talbot
1.08

finishing

Camelon Juniors+0.00on par
Auchinleck Talbot+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Camelon Juniors ↓

Auchinleck Talbot →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Camelon Juniors or draw
43%
Camelon Juniors or Auchinleck Talbot
79%
Draw or Auchinleck Talbot
77%

Winning margin

Camelon Juniors wins by 2+
9%
Auchinleck Talbot wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Camelon Juniors 1+ goals
72%
Camelon Juniors 2+ goals
37%
Camelon Juniors 3+ goals
14%
Auchinleck Talbot 1+ goals
88%
Auchinleck Talbot 2+ goals
63%
Auchinleck Talbot 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Camelon Juniors (draw refunded)
28%
Auchinleck Talbot (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Camelon Juniors at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

Auchinleck Talbot away — creates 2.92, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Camelon Juniors attack 1.50 + Auchinleck Talbot defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.29

Auchinleck Talbot attack 2.92 + Camelon Juniors defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 2.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Camelon Juniors scores more
23%
level
21%
Auchinleck Talbot scores more
57%

Auchinleck Talbot at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Auchinleck Talbot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Camelon Juniors 0–2 Auchinleck Talbot

Auchinleck Talbot beat Camelon Juniors 2-0 in FA Cup on August 31, 2019.

The match was played at Carmuirs Park in Camelon.