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Cambuur vs Preußen Münster — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Cambuur
Cambuur
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Preußen Münster
Preußen Münster
1/6/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Sportpark De Wachtelenberg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Cambuur34%
×Draw23%
Preußen Münster44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cambuur
1.56
Preußen Münster
1.80

Preußen Münster creates 15% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 9 away

creates per match

Cambuur
2.00
Preußen Münster
2.11

allows per match

Cambuur
1.50
Preußen Münster
1.11

finishing

Cambuur+0.00on par
Preußen Münster+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cambuur ↓

Preußen Münster →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Cambuur or draw
56%
Cambuur or Preußen Münster
77%
Draw or Preußen Münster
66%

Winning margin

Cambuur wins by 2+
16%
Preußen Münster wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Cambuur 1+ goals
79%
Cambuur 2+ goals
46%
Cambuur 3+ goals
21%
Preußen Münster 1+ goals
83%
Preußen Münster 2+ goals
54%
Preußen Münster 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Cambuur (draw refunded)
44%
Preußen Münster (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cambuur at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

Preußen Münster away — creates 2.11, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cambuur attack 2.00 + Preußen Münster defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.56

Preußen Münster attack 2.11 + Cambuur defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Cambuur scores more
34%
level
23%
Preußen Münster scores more
44%

Preußen Münster at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Preußen Münster will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cambuur vs Preußen Münster

Cambuur beat Preußen Münster 1-0 in Friendlies Clubs on January 6, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark De Wachtelenberg in Epe.