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Cambuur vs NAC Breda — Eerste Divisie 2018

Cambuur
Cambuur
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
NAC Breda
NAC Breda
5/12/2021Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 38Cambuurstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Cambuur48%
×Draw23%
NAC Breda29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cambuur
1.86
NAC Breda
1.41

Cambuur creates 32% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 90 away

creates per match

Cambuur
2.19
NAC Breda
1.62

allows per match

Cambuur
1.19
NAC Breda
1.53

finishing

Cambuur+0.00on par
NAC Breda+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cambuur ↓

NAC Breda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Cambuur or draw
71%
Cambuur or NAC Breda
77%
Draw or NAC Breda
52%

Winning margin

Cambuur wins by 2+
27%
NAC Breda wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Cambuur 1+ goals
84%
Cambuur 2+ goals
55%
Cambuur 3+ goals
28%
NAC Breda 1+ goals
76%
NAC Breda 2+ goals
41%
NAC Breda 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Cambuur (draw refunded)
62%
NAC Breda (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cambuur at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.19 · 109 matches

NAC Breda away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.53 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cambuur attack 2.19 + NAC Breda defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.86

NAC Breda attack 1.62 + Cambuur defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Cambuur scores more
48%
level
23%
NAC Breda scores more
29%

Cambuur at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Cambuur will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eerste Divisie: Cambuur 3–2 NAC Breda

Cambuur beat NAC Breda 3-2 in Eerste Divisie on May 12, 2021.

The match was played at Cambuurstadion in Leeuwarden.