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Cambuur U21 vs Vitesse U21 — U21 Divisie 1 2020

Cambuur U21
Cambuur U21
FT
3 – 2
Vitesse U21
Vitesse U21
3/8/2025U21 Divisie 1U21 Divisie 1 · Spring Season - 5Cambuur Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Cambuur U2163%
×Draw18%
Vitesse U2119%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cambuur U21
2.48
Vitesse U21
1.30

Cambuur U21 creates 91% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 7 away

creates per match

Cambuur U21
2.26
Vitesse U21
1.43

allows per match

Cambuur U21
1.17
Vitesse U21
2.71

finishing

Cambuur U21+0.00on par
Vitesse U21+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cambuur U21 ↓

Vitesse U21 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Cambuur U21 or draw
81%
Cambuur U21 or Vitesse U21
82%
Draw or Vitesse U21
37%

Winning margin

Cambuur U21 wins by 2+
41%
Vitesse U21 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Cambuur U21 1+ goals
92%
Cambuur U21 2+ goals
70%
Cambuur U21 3+ goals
44%
Vitesse U21 1+ goals
73%
Vitesse U21 2+ goals
37%
Vitesse U21 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Cambuur U21 (draw refunded)
77%
Vitesse U21 (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cambuur U21 at home — creates 2.26, concedes 1.17 · 42 matches

Vitesse U21 away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cambuur U21 attack 2.26 + Vitesse U21 defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.48

Vitesse U21 attack 1.43 + Cambuur U21 defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Cambuur U21 scores more
63%
level
18%
Vitesse U21 scores more
19%

Cambuur U21 at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Cambuur U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cambuur U21 vs Vitesse U21

Cambuur U21 beat Vitesse U21 3-2 in U21 Divisie 1 on March 8, 2025.

The match was played at Cambuur Stadion in Leeuwarden.