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Cambridge United W vs Norwich City — FA Women's Cup 2019

Cambridge United W
Cambridge United W
FT
0 – 1
Norwich City
Norwich City
11/3/2024FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 1st RoundRowley Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Cambridge United W48%
×Draw22%
Norwich City30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cambridge United W
2.00
Norwich City
1.54

Cambridge United W creates 30% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

creates per match

Cambridge United W
2.00
Norwich City
1.57

allows per match

Cambridge United W
1.50
Norwich City
2.00

finishing

Cambridge United W+0.00on par
Norwich City+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cambridge United W ↓

Norwich City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Cambridge United W or draw
70%
Cambridge United W or Norwich City
78%
Draw or Norwich City
52%

Winning margin

Cambridge United W wins by 2+
28%
Norwich City wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Cambridge United W 1+ goals
86%
Cambridge United W 2+ goals
59%
Cambridge United W 3+ goals
32%
Norwich City 1+ goals
79%
Norwich City 2+ goals
45%
Norwich City 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Cambridge United W (draw refunded)
62%
Norwich City (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cambridge United W at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Norwich City away — creates 1.57, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cambridge United W attack 2.00 + Norwich City defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Norwich City attack 1.57 + Cambridge United W defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Cambridge United W scores more
48%
level
22%
Norwich City scores more
30%

Cambridge United W at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Cambridge United W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Women's Cup: Cambridge United W 0–1 Norwich City

Norwich City beat Cambridge United W 1-0 in FA Women's Cup on November 3, 2024.

The match was played at Rowley Park Stadium in St Neots, Cambridgeshire.