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Cambridge United W vs Milton Keynes Dons W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Cambridge United W
Cambridge United W
FT
1 – 2
Milton Keynes Dons W
Milton Keynes Dons W
11/12/2023FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 1st RoundRowley Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Cambridge United W66%
×Draw16%
Milton Keynes Dons W17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cambridge United W
2.90
Milton Keynes Dons W
1.45

Cambridge United W creates 100% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

Cambridge United W
2.00
Milton Keynes Dons W
1.40

allows per match

Cambridge United W
1.50
Milton Keynes Dons W
3.80

finishing

Cambridge United W+0.00on par
Milton Keynes Dons W+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cambridge United W ↓

Milton Keynes Dons W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Cambridge United W or draw
83%
Cambridge United W or Milton Keynes Dons W
84%
Draw or Milton Keynes Dons W
34%

Winning margin

Cambridge United W wins by 2+
46%
Milton Keynes Dons W wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Cambridge United W 1+ goals
94%
Cambridge United W 2+ goals
78%
Cambridge United W 3+ goals
54%
Milton Keynes Dons W 1+ goals
77%
Milton Keynes Dons W 2+ goals
42%
Milton Keynes Dons W 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Cambridge United W (draw refunded)
79%
Milton Keynes Dons W (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cambridge United W at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Milton Keynes Dons W away — creates 1.40, concedes 3.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cambridge United W attack 2.00 + Milton Keynes Dons W defence 3.80 → ÷2 → 2.90

Milton Keynes Dons W attack 1.40 + Cambridge United W defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Cambridge United W scores more
66%
level
16%
Milton Keynes Dons W scores more
17%

Cambridge United W at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Cambridge United W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cambridge United W vs Milton Keynes Dons W

Milton Keynes Dons W beat Cambridge United W 2-1 in FA Women's Cup on November 12, 2023.

The match was played at Rowley Park Stadium in St Neots, Cambridgeshire.