Cambridge United W 4–2 AFC Sudbury Ladies

Cambridge United W

4 – 2

AFC Sudbury Ladies

10/22/2023

FA Women's Cup · 3rd Round QualifyingRowley Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Cambridge United W63%

×Draw18%

AFC Sudbury Ladies19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cambridge United WExpected goals in this matchAFC Sudbury Ladies

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.67

1.42

Cambridge United W

2.67

AFC Sudbury Ladies

1.42

Cambridge United W creates 88% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

2.00

creates per match

1.33

1.50

allows per match

3.33

creates per match

Cambridge United W

2.00

AFC Sudbury Ladies

1.33

allows per match

Cambridge United W

1.50

AFC Sudbury Ladies

3.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cambridge United W+0.00on par

AFC Sudbury Ladies+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cambridge United W ↓

AFC Sudbury Ladies →

0–02%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–05%

1–16%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–05%

3–18%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4–04%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Cambridge United W or draw

81%

Cambridge United W or AFC Sudbury Ladies

82%

Draw or AFC Sudbury Ladies

37%

Winning margin

Cambridge United W wins by 2+

43%

AFC Sudbury Ladies wins by 2+

Team goals

Cambridge United W 1+ goals

93%

Cambridge United W 2+ goals

74%

Cambridge United W 3+ goals

49%

AFC Sudbury Ladies 1+ goals

76%

AFC Sudbury Ladies 2+ goals

41%

AFC Sudbury Ladies 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Cambridge United W (draw refunded)

77%

AFC Sudbury Ladies (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Cambridge United W at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

AFC Sudbury Ladies away — creates 1.33, concedes 3.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Cambridge United W attack 2.00 + AFC Sudbury Ladies defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.67

AFC Sudbury Ladies attack 1.33 + Cambridge United W defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 63%?"

Cambridge United W scores more

63%

level

18%

AFC Sudbury Ladies scores more

19%

Cambridge United W at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Cambridge United W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff