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Cambridge United vs Wycombe — League One 2018

Cambridge United
Cambridge United
Preview
18:45
Wycombe
Wycombe
10/20/2026League OneLeague One · Round 12Abbey Stadium
Big match
37%
Wycombe
model favours
35%27%37%

Both teams scored in 6 of the last 8 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
56%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Cambridge United35%
×Draw27%
Wycombe37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cambridge United
1.20
Wycombe
1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 92 home / 158 away

creates per match

Cambridge United
1.08
Wycombe
1.26

allows per match

Cambridge United
1.22
Wycombe
1.32

finishing

Cambridge United+0.00on par
Wycombe+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cambridge United ↓

Wycombe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Cambridge United or draw
63%
Cambridge United or Wycombe
73%
Draw or Wycombe
65%

Winning margin

Cambridge United wins by 2+
15%
Wycombe wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Cambridge United 1+ goals
70%
Cambridge United 2+ goals
34%
Cambridge United 3+ goals
12%
Wycombe 1+ goals
71%
Wycombe 2+ goals
35%
Wycombe 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Cambridge United (draw refunded)
49%
Wycombe (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cambridge United at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.22 · 92 matches

Wycombe away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.32 · 158 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cambridge United attack 1.08 + Wycombe defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.20

Wycombe attack 1.26 + Cambridge United defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Cambridge United scores more
35%
level
27%
Wycombe scores more
37%

Wycombe at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Wycombe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Style contrast — Cambridge United play Direct / counter-attacking, Wycombe Attack-heavy
  • Wycombe fall short of their xG (1.4 vs 1.9 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Cambridge United
Direct / counter-attacking
Wycombe
Attack-heavy
44%Possession48%
65%Pass accuracy67%
10.7ShotsBiggest gap12.3
—xG1.86
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Cambridge UnitedWycombe

Head-to-head

8 previous meetings

1
Cambridge United
3
Draws
4
Wycombe
Avg goals: 2.9BTTS: 75%
1–11–21–10–01–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
United
WWDW
Wycombe
LLWWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cambridge United vs Wycombe — Match Preview

Cambridge United face Wycombe on October 20, 2026 in this League One fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Cambridge United host Wycombe at Abbey Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.