Cambridge United 3–1 Wigan: Result & Stats

Cambridge United

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Wigan

D. Andrew 83'

G. Yahyai 57', 11'

M. Godo 65'

4/1/2024

League One · Round 42Cledara Abbey Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Cambridge United35%

×Draw27%

Wigan38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cambridge UnitedExpected goals in this matchWigan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.27

Cambridge United

1.21

Wigan

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 92 home / 117 away

1.08

creates per match

1.32

1.22

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Cambridge United

1.08

Wigan

1.32

allows per match

Cambridge United

1.22

Wigan

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cambridge United+0.00on par

Wigan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cambridge United ↓

Wigan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Cambridge United or draw

62%

Cambridge United or Wigan

73%

Draw or Wigan

65%

Winning margin

Cambridge United wins by 2+

15%

Wigan wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Cambridge United 1+ goals

70%

Cambridge United 2+ goals

34%

Cambridge United 3+ goals

12%

Wigan 1+ goals

72%

Wigan 2+ goals

36%

Wigan 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Cambridge United (draw refunded)

48%

Wigan (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cambridge United at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.22 · 92 matches

Wigan away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.33 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cambridge United attack 1.08 + Wigan defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.21

Wigan attack 1.32 + Cambridge United defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Cambridge United scores more

35%

level

27%

Wigan scores more

38%

Wigan at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Wigan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

G. Yahyai

Cambridge United · F

8.5

Match Events

11'

31'

33'

45+1'

46'

C. Kelman← S. Sessegnon

46'

S. Humphrys← S. Smith

54'

54'

57'

59'

65'

M. Godo↳ M. Smith

66'

E. Kachunga← J. Brophy

80'

J. Lankester← S. Kaikai

83'

C. Goode← J. Kerr

83'

D. Andrew

86'

F. Okenabirhie← G. Yahyai

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CambridgeWigan

Overview

34%Possession66%

8Total Shots12

0Corners4

10Fouls14

Shots

8Total Shots12

3On Target3

2Off Target2

3Blocked7

5Inside Box9

3Outside Box3

Passing

34%Possession66%

256Total Passes495

135Accurate Passes380

53%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

2Saves0

Discipline

10Fouls14

2Yellow Cards2

0Offsides3

Match Recap: Cambridge United vs Wigan

Cambridge United beat Wigan 3-1 in League One on April 1, 2024.

Goals: G. Yahyai (11', 57'), M. Godo (65'), D. Andrew (83').

Wigan controlled possession (66%) and registered 12 shots to 8.

The match was played at Cledara Abbey Stadium in Cambridge, Cambridgeshire.

Cambridge United vs Wigan — League One 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Cambridge United vs Wigan