Cambridge United 0–4 Stevenage: Result & Stats

Cambridge United

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Stevenage

C. Lakin 90+4'

C. Carter 87'

J. Cassidy 59'

E. List 36'

1/18/2020

League Two · Round 28Abbey Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Cambridge United48%

×Draw28%

Stevenage25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cambridge UnitedExpected goals in this matchStevenage

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

0.89

Cambridge United

1.36

Stevenage

0.89

Cambridge United creates 53% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 100 away

1.49

creates per match

0.80

0.97

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Cambridge United

1.49

Stevenage

0.80

allows per match

Cambridge United

0.97

Stevenage

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cambridge United+0.00on par

Stevenage+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cambridge United ↓

Stevenage →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Cambridge United or draw

75%

Cambridge United or Stevenage

72%

Draw or Stevenage

52%

Winning margin

Cambridge United wins by 2+

23%

Stevenage wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Cambridge United 1+ goals

74%

Cambridge United 2+ goals

39%

Cambridge United 3+ goals

16%

Stevenage 1+ goals

59%

Stevenage 2+ goals

22%

Stevenage 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Cambridge United (draw refunded)

66%

Stevenage (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cambridge United at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.97 · 65 matches

Stevenage away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.24 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cambridge United attack 1.49 + Stevenage defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.36

Stevenage attack 0.80 + Cambridge United defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Cambridge United scores more

48%

level

28%

Stevenage scores more

25%

Cambridge United at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Cambridge United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

39

J. Leesley

Stevenage · M

8.4

Match Events

23'

36'

39'

46'

59'

J. Cassidy↳ J. Leesley

65'

C. Carter← E. List

68'

A. Dallas← L. Hannant

70'

J. Williams← H. Dunk

82'

B. Kennedy← D. Parrett

87'

C. Carter↳ J. Leesley

90'

Paul Lewis

90+5'

P. Taylor← J. Leesley

90+4'

C. Lakin

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CambridgeStevenage

Overview

52%Possession48%

12Total Shots15

5Corners1

12Fouls17

Shots

12Total Shots15

4On Target6

6Off Target7

2Blocked2

9Inside Box10

3Outside Box5

Passing

52%Possession48%

362Total Passes332

225Accurate Passes213

62%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls17

3Yellow Cards0

0Offsides2