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Cambridge United vs Portsmouth — League One 2018

Cambridge United
Cambridge United
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Portsmouth
Portsmouth
10/24/2023League OneLeague One · Round 15Abbey Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Cambridge United32%
×Draw28%
Portsmouth41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cambridge United
1.09
Portsmouth
1.28

Portsmouth creates 17% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 134 away

creates per match

Cambridge United
1.08
Portsmouth
1.34

allows per match

Cambridge United
1.22
Portsmouth
1.10

finishing

Cambridge United+0.00on par
Portsmouth+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cambridge United ↓

Portsmouth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Cambridge United or draw
59%
Cambridge United or Portsmouth
72%
Draw or Portsmouth
68%

Winning margin

Cambridge United wins by 2+
12%
Portsmouth wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Cambridge United 1+ goals
66%
Cambridge United 2+ goals
30%
Cambridge United 3+ goals
10%
Portsmouth 1+ goals
72%
Portsmouth 2+ goals
37%
Portsmouth 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Cambridge United (draw refunded)
44%
Portsmouth (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cambridge United at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.22 · 92 matches

Portsmouth away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.10 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cambridge United attack 1.08 + Portsmouth defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.09

Portsmouth attack 1.34 + Cambridge United defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Cambridge United scores more
32%
level
28%
Portsmouth scores more
41%

Portsmouth at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Portsmouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cambridge United vs Portsmouth

Cambridge United and Portsmouth drew 0-0 in League One on October 24, 2023.

The match was played at Abbey Stadium in Cambridge, Cambridgeshire.