Cambridge United 1–0 Morecambe: Result & Stats

Cambridge United

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Morecambe

J. Roles 57'

12/29/2019

League Two · Round 24Abbey Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Cambridge United50%

×Draw25%

Morecambe25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cambridge UnitedExpected goals in this matchMorecambe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.07

Cambridge United

1.61

Morecambe

1.07

Cambridge United creates 50% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 93 away

1.49

creates per match

1.17

0.97

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Cambridge United

1.49

Morecambe

1.17

allows per match

Cambridge United

0.97

Morecambe

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cambridge United+0.00on par

Morecambe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cambridge United ↓

Morecambe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Cambridge United or draw

75%

Cambridge United or Morecambe

75%

Draw or Morecambe

50%

Winning margin

Cambridge United wins by 2+

26%

Morecambe wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Cambridge United 1+ goals

80%

Cambridge United 2+ goals

48%

Cambridge United 3+ goals

22%

Morecambe 1+ goals

66%

Morecambe 2+ goals

29%

Morecambe 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Cambridge United (draw refunded)

66%

Morecambe (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cambridge United at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.97 · 65 matches

Morecambe away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.73 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cambridge United attack 1.49 + Morecambe defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.61

Morecambe attack 1.17 + Cambridge United defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Cambridge United scores more

50%

level

25%

Morecambe scores more

25%

Cambridge United at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Cambridge United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30

J. Roles

Cambridge United · M

8.3

Match Events

54'

Alex Kenyon

56'

R. Lambe← L. ONeil

57'

J. Roles↳ G. Maris

70'

J. Cranston← K. Ellison

73'

A. Leitch-Smith← L. Alessandra

73'

A. Wildig← T. Brewitt

78'

H. Dunk← M. Richards

83'

H. Knibbs← J. Roles

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CambridgeMorecambe

Overview

55%Possession45%

14Total Shots14

7Corners2

11Fouls8

Shots

14Total Shots14

4On Target2

6Off Target8

4Blocked4

8Inside Box8

6Outside Box6

Passing

55%Possession45%

448Total Passes366

289Accurate Passes196

65%Pass Accuracy54%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls8

0Yellow Cards1

2Offsides2