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Cambridge United vs Lincoln — League One 2018

Cambridge United
Cambridge United
FT
1 – 5
HT: 0 – 3
Lincoln
Lincoln
J. Ironside 59'
A. Scully 72', 24'
L. Fiorini 57'
C. McGrandles 16'
H. Adelakun 1'
9/11/2021League OneLeague One · Round 7Abbey Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Cambridge United34%
×Draw28%
Lincoln38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cambridge United
1.15
Lincoln
1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 92 home / 156 away

creates per match

Cambridge United
1.08
Lincoln
1.26

allows per match

Cambridge United
1.22
Lincoln
1.22

finishing

Cambridge United+0.00on par
Lincoln+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cambridge United ↓

Lincoln →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Cambridge United or draw
62%
Cambridge United or Lincoln
72%
Draw or Lincoln
66%

Winning margin

Cambridge United wins by 2+
14%
Lincoln wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Cambridge United 1+ goals
68%
Cambridge United 2+ goals
32%
Cambridge United 3+ goals
11%
Lincoln 1+ goals
71%
Lincoln 2+ goals
35%
Lincoln 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Cambridge United (draw refunded)
47%
Lincoln (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cambridge United at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.22 · 92 matches

Lincoln away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.22 · 156 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cambridge United attack 1.08 + Lincoln defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.15

Lincoln attack 1.26 + Cambridge United defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Cambridge United scores more
34%
level
28%
Lincoln scores more
38%

Lincoln at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Lincoln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
A. ScullyLincolnLincoln · F
10.0

Match Events

1'
H. Adelakun↳ A. Scully
16'
C. McGrandles↳ A. Scully
24'
A. Scully↳ L. Bridcutt
36'
George Williams
53'
L. Fiorini← E. Bishop
57'
L. Fiorini↳ A. Scully
59'
J. Ironside↳ W. Hoolahan
72'
Paul Digby
72'
A. Scully↳ H. Adelakun
75'
J. Lankester← S. Tracey
75'
J. Weir← P. Digby
75'
C. Maguire← T. Hopper
80'
H. Knibbs← W. Hoolahan
82'
Harvey Knibbs
84'
L. Sørensen← L. Bridcutt

Possession

49%Cambridge

Shots

14Cambridge

Pass accuracy

48%Cambridge

Statistics

CambridgeLincoln
Overview
49%Possession51%
14Total Shots18
10Corners1
4Fouls11
Shots
14Total Shots18
3On Target12
9Off Target5
2Blocked1
7Inside Box10
7Outside Box8
Passing
49%Possession51%
437Total Passes466
342Accurate Passes387
78%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
7Saves2
Discipline
4Fouls11
3Yellow Cards0
3Offsides2

Match Recap: Cambridge United vs Lincoln

Lincoln beat Cambridge United 5-1 in League One on September 11, 2021.

Goals: H. Adelakun (1'), C. McGrandles (16'), A. Scully (24', 72'), L. Fiorini (57'), J. Ironside (59').

Lincoln controlled possession (51%) and registered 18 shots to 14.

The match was played at Abbey Stadium in Cambridge, Cambridgeshire.