Cambridge United 0–1 Forest Green: Result & Stats

Cambridge United

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Forest Green

J. Aitchison 78'

9/7/2019

League Two · Round 7Abbey Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Cambridge United42%

×Draw27%

Forest Green32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cambridge UnitedExpected goals in this matchForest Green

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.17

Cambridge United

1.38

Forest Green

1.17

Cambridge United creates 18% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 90 away

1.49

creates per match

1.36

0.97

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Cambridge United

1.49

Forest Green

1.36

allows per match

Cambridge United

0.97

Forest Green

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cambridge United+0.00on par

Forest Green+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cambridge United ↓

Forest Green →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Cambridge United or draw

68%

Cambridge United or Forest Green

73%

Draw or Forest Green

58%

Winning margin

Cambridge United wins by 2+

19%

Forest Green wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Cambridge United 1+ goals

75%

Cambridge United 2+ goals

40%

Cambridge United 3+ goals

16%

Forest Green 1+ goals

69%

Forest Green 2+ goals

33%

Forest Green 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Cambridge United (draw refunded)

57%

Forest Green (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cambridge United at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.97 · 65 matches

Forest Green away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.26 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cambridge United attack 1.49 + Forest Green defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.38

Forest Green attack 1.36 + Cambridge United defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Cambridge United scores more

42%

level

27%

Forest Green scores more

32%

Cambridge United at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Cambridge United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

L. Thomas

Forest Green · G

7.9

Match Events

5'

21'

46'

57'

67'

J. Aitchison← D. Grubb

69'

Joseph Mills

74'

J. Mondal← K. Taylor

77'

J. Ibehre← M. Richards

77'

A. Dallas← S. Smith

78'

J. Aitchison↳ J. Mills

84'

Liam Kitching

85'

Paul Lewis

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CambridgeForest

Overview

43%Possession57%

18Total Shots10

5Corners4

8Fouls14

Shots

18Total Shots10

3On Target2

11Off Target7

4Blocked1

10Inside Box7

8Outside Box3

Passing

43%Possession57%

342Total Passes451

233Accurate Passes346

68%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

8Fouls14

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides0