Cambridge United 2–1 Crawley Town: Result & Stats

Cambridge United

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Crawley Town

P. Lewis 86'

S. Smith 83'

B. Lubala 79'

11/2/2019

League Two · Round 17Abbey Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Cambridge United54%

×Draw23%

Crawley Town23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cambridge UnitedExpected goals in this matchCrawley Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.07

Cambridge United

1.79

Crawley Town

1.07

Cambridge United creates 67% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 13 away

1.80

creates per match

1.42

0.73

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Cambridge United

1.80

Crawley Town

1.42

allows per match

Cambridge United

0.73

Crawley Town

1.79

+0.56scores more than expected

finishing

-0.57scores less than expected

finishing

Cambridge United+0.56scores more

Crawley Town-0.57scores less

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cambridge United ↓

Crawley Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Cambridge United or draw

77%

Cambridge United or Crawley Town

77%

Draw or Crawley Town

46%

Winning margin

Cambridge United wins by 2+

30%

Crawley Town wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Cambridge United 1+ goals

83%

Cambridge United 2+ goals

53%

Cambridge United 3+ goals

26%

Crawley Town 1+ goals

66%

Crawley Town 2+ goals

29%

Crawley Town 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Cambridge United (draw refunded)

71%

Crawley Town (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cambridge United at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.73 · 11 matches

Crawley Town away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.79 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cambridge United attack 1.80 + Crawley Town defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.79

Crawley Town attack 1.42 + Cambridge United defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Cambridge United scores more

54%

level

23%

Crawley Town scores more

23%

Cambridge United at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Cambridge United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

P. Lewis

Cambridge United · M

7.9

Match Events

12'

Nathan Ferguson

57'

A. Nadesan← A. Nathaniel-George

62'

L. O'Neil← R. Lambe

70'

Sam Smith

71'

D. Jones← H. Dunk

71'

H. Knibbs← M. Richards

75'

Liam O'Neil

79'

B. Lubala↳ L. Young

80'

T. Allarakhia← R. Grego-Cox

83'

S. Smith↳ E. Ward

86'

P. Lewis

90'

Tom Dallison

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CambridgeCrawley

Overview

46%Possession54%

10Total Shots18

4Corners9

7Fouls11

Shots

10Total Shots18

3On Target5

5Off Target8

2Blocked5

8Inside Box12

2Outside Box6

Passing

46%Possession54%

337Total Passes382

204Accurate Passes252

61%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

7Fouls11

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides0