Cambridge United 3–0 Carlisle: Result & Stats

Cambridge United

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Carlisle

9/12/2020

League Two · Round 1Abbey Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Cambridge United44%

×Draw27%

Carlisle29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cambridge UnitedExpected goals in this matchCarlisle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.04

Cambridge United

1.36

Carlisle

1.04

Cambridge United creates 31% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 134 away

1.35

creates per match

1.04

1.03

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Cambridge United

1.35

Carlisle

1.04

allows per match

Cambridge United

1.03

Carlisle

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cambridge United+0.00on par

Carlisle+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cambridge United ↓

Carlisle →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Cambridge United or draw

71%

Cambridge United or Carlisle

73%

Draw or Carlisle

56%

Winning margin

Cambridge United wins by 2+

21%

Carlisle wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Cambridge United 1+ goals

74%

Cambridge United 2+ goals

39%

Cambridge United 3+ goals

16%

Carlisle 1+ goals

65%

Carlisle 2+ goals

28%

Carlisle 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Cambridge United (draw refunded)

61%

Carlisle (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cambridge United at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.03 · 88 matches

Carlisle away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.38 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cambridge United attack 1.35 + Carlisle defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.36

Carlisle attack 1.04 + Cambridge United defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Cambridge United scores more

44%

level

27%

Carlisle scores more

29%

Cambridge United at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Cambridge United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff