Cambridge United 1–0 Braintree: Result & Stats

Cambridge United

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Braintree

M. Gash 74'

1/1/2013

League #43 · Round 30The R Costings Abbey Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Cambridge United67%

×Draw22%

Braintree10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cambridge UnitedExpected goals in this matchBraintree

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

0.51

Cambridge United

1.73

Braintree

0.51

Cambridge United creates 239% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 16 away

1.40

creates per match

0.81

0.20

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

Cambridge United

1.40

Braintree

0.81

allows per match

Cambridge United

0.20

Braintree

2.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cambridge United+0.00on par

Braintree+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cambridge United ↓

Braintree →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–15%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–19%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–016%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Cambridge United or draw

90%

Cambridge United or Braintree

78%

Draw or Braintree

33%

Winning margin

Cambridge United wins by 2+

39%

Braintree wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Cambridge United 1+ goals

82%

Cambridge United 2+ goals

52%

Cambridge United 3+ goals

25%

Braintree 1+ goals

40%

Braintree 2+ goals

9%

Braintree 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Cambridge United (draw refunded)

87%

Braintree (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cambridge United at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.20 · 5 matches

Braintree away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.06 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cambridge United attack 1.40 + Braintree defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.73

Braintree attack 0.81 + Cambridge United defence 0.20 → ÷2 → 0.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Cambridge United scores more

67%

level

22%

Braintree scores more

10%

Cambridge United at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Cambridge United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

49'

J. Mulley← S. Habergham

53'

R. Willmott← S. Smith

61'

C. Haynes-Brown← H. Dunk

66'

R. Wellard← A. Pugh

74'

M. Gash

84'

D. Sparkes← K. Davis

Cambridge

Braintree

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

53'▲R. Willmott←▼S. Smith

61'▲C. Haynes-Brown←▼H. Dunk

66'▲R. Wellard←▼A. Pugh

Cambridge United substitutes

WillmottHaynes-BrownWellardGibsonHedge

49'▲J. Mulley←▼S. Habergham

84'▲D. Sparkes←▼K. Davis

Braintree substitutes

MulleySparkesHuntSheppardSymons