Braintree 1–0 Cambridge United: Result & Stats

Braintree

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Cambridge United

D. Sparkes 67'

2/25/2014

League #43 · Round 40The Amlin Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Braintree25%

×Draw23%

Cambridge United51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BraintreeExpected goals in this matchCambridge United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.80

Braintree

1.20

Cambridge United

1.80

Cambridge United creates 50% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 5 away

1.20

creates per match

2.40

1.20

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Braintree

1.20

Cambridge United

2.40

allows per match

Braintree

1.20

Cambridge United

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Braintree+0.00on par

Cambridge United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Braintree ↓

Cambridge United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–26%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Braintree or draw

49%

Braintree or Cambridge United

77%

Draw or Cambridge United

75%

Winning margin

Braintree wins by 2+

10%

Cambridge United wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Braintree 1+ goals

70%

Braintree 2+ goals

34%

Braintree 3+ goals

12%

Cambridge United 1+ goals

83%

Cambridge United 2+ goals

54%

Cambridge United 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Braintree (draw refunded)

33%

Cambridge United (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Braintree at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

Cambridge United away — creates 2.40, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Braintree attack 1.20 + Cambridge United defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.20

Cambridge United attack 2.40 + Braintree defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Braintree scores more

25%

level

23%

Cambridge United scores more

51%

Cambridge United at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Cambridge United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

D. Sparkes← K. Davis

51'

A. Chambers← A. Pugh

57'

J. Gillies← L. Berry

65'

N. Arnold← M. Barnes Homer

67'

D. Sparkes

Braintree

Cambridge

▼

▼

▼

▼

46'▲D. Sparkes←▼K. Davis

Braintree substitutes

SparkesHolmanDaleyMcDonaldLong

51'▲A. Chambers←▼A. Pugh

57'▲J. Gillies←▼L. Berry

65'▲N. Arnold←▼M. Barnes Homer

Cambridge United substitutes

ChambersGilliesArnoldSullivanTait